Shocking 22k US jobs report fuels $113k Bitcoin as rate cut odds explode

Bitcoin rose above $113,000 on Friday as U.S. payrolls increased by 22,000 and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3 percent, pushing traders to price a September Federal Reserve rate cut with near certainty.

Per the Bureau of Labor Statistics release, private employers added 38,000 jobs, government payrolls fell by 16,000 and manufacturing lost 12,000.

Average hourly earnings rose 0.3 percent on the month and 3.7 percent on the year, the labor force participation rate edged up to 62.3 percent and average weekly hours held at 34.2. The U-6 underemployment rate reached 8.1 percent.

Bitcoin traded above the $113,000 level during the session while hovering just below that mark on real-time charts.

The weak headline gain followed a week of incremental softening across higher-frequency indicators. Initial jobless claims rose by 8,000 to a seasonally adjusted 237,000, while private-sector payroll growth in the ADP series cooled, reinforcing evidence of slower hiring, according to Trading Economics data

Separately, the services side of the economy improved but showed persistent price pressure: the ISM Services PMI firmed in August, new orders advanced, and the prices-paid index eased only slightly to a still-elevated 69.2.

On costs, the Labor Department revised second-quarter nonfarm productivity up to a 3.3 percent annualized pace and unit labor costs down to 1.0 percent, a combination that supports disinflation at the margin.

Trade flows added another piece to the macro picture. The U.S. goods and services deficit widened to $78.3 billion in July as imports rebounded, the largest gap since early spring, per the latest joint release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and Census Bureau. That pattern points to resilient domestic demand and front-loading related to tariff policy, even as hiring momentum slows.

Rate expectations adjusted quickly after the August payrolls figures. Futures implied probabilities tracked by the CME FedWatch Tool showed markets treating a September reduction as a base case, with some chance of a larger move discussed in rates commentary during the trading day.

The chance of a 50bps cut sat at 0% yesterday but has now jumped to 12%, while the 3.6% chance of no cut has evaporated to 0%.

The setup is straightforward for crypto: a softer labor market and contained wage growth raise the probability of easier policy, which has historically supported liquidity conditions that can lift risk assets, including Bitcoin.

The mix of slower hiring, firm services demand, and improving productivity leaves the policy debate finely balanced heading into the September 16–17 meeting.

If service inflation pressure, captured in ISM prices, moderates alongside cooling labor conditions and lower unit labor costs, the Fed has room to begin a measured easing cycle, a backdrop that crypto markets have already started to discount.

The committee’s decision will finalize the near-term path for dollar liquidity and duration, and by extension, the tone for digital asset trading into quarter-end.

The Fed meets September 16–17.

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